瓦利日记2022年4月30日:俄军为什么迟迟拿不下马里乌波尔

2022-04-30 408 0

(原文无标题,标题位译者所拟,本文图片亦是译者所配)

中文翻译:

马里乌波尔的乌克兰士兵已经被包围很久了,然而,他们仍在抵抗,马里乌波尔还没有完全在落入俄军手中,今天来说说原因...

在战争中,用地面部队夺取领土是最昂贵的。用步兵去攻占一个城镇,步兵对付步兵,会给进攻者带来很大的伤亡。这就是为何地面进攻中,进攻方的士兵人数往往至少是防守方的3倍的原因。当地形容易防守时,有时需要多达10倍的士兵。

在马里乌波尔的案例中,亚速钢铁工业综合体非常容易防守,其防守者也很有防守的动力,这个地方甚至包括许多抵御核战争的隧道和掩体!

俄国人还有一个问题:他们没有足够的步兵来占领城镇和村庄,这还没算上长期占领和确保这些领土的安全的消耗。如果乌克兰人像塔利班在阿富汗那样发动叛乱,俄罗斯人将更难维持秩序。然后,他们将不得不雇用士兵来占领新的领土,并雇用其他人来保护他们所占领的领土。

俄国人没有损失太多士兵的奢望。这就是为什么他们宁愿使用炮兵和重武器狂轰滥炸的原因。

俄军的目的是征服和占领,因此他们不得不使用更多的步兵,这将导致更多的俄罗斯人的伤亡。这也是我为什么从一开始就断定俄罗斯不可能占领整个乌克兰的原因之一。

原文:

Ukrainian soldiers from Mariopol are surrounded. Yet they are still resisting and Mariopol is not entirely in Russian hands. Here's why…

In war, there is nothing more expensive than taking territory with infantry (soldiers on foot). Taking a town with infantry, against infantry, causes the attacker a lot of casualties. This is why it often takes at least 3 times as many attacking soldiers as defending soldiers. When the terrain is easy to defend, sometimes up to 10 times more soldiers are needed.

In the case of Mariopol, the Azovstal industrial complex is easy to defend and its defenders are motivated. The place even includes many nuclear tunnels and shelters!

The Russians have another problem: they don't have enough infantry to take over towns and villages. This is without counting on occupying and securing these territories in the long term. If the Ukrainians launch an insurgency like the Taliban did in Afghanistan, the Russians will have even more difficulty maintaining order. They will then have to employ soldiers to take new territories, and employ others to secure the territories they occupy.

The Russians don't have the luxury of losing too many soldiers. This is why they favor bombardments, artillery and the use of heavy weapons.

To conquer and occupy territories, the Russians will therefore have to use many more infantry. This will lead to more Russian casualties. This is one of the reasons why from the beginning I was convinced that the Russians could not take over all of Ukraine.

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